The $1.7B Bitcoin Bet on Rally Above $100K, But Not Reaching New Record Highs
The strategy bets on a measured rally into the year-end, rather than a record-breaking surge.
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On Monday, a block trader placed a sizable bet on bitcoin's BTC $91,538.88 ongoing price rebound extending into year-end, anticipating a renewed move above $100,000 mark but stopping short of fresh record highs.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has rebounded to around $88,000 from last week’s lows near $80,000. While the bounce is characterized by renewed expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, the spot ETFs are yet to see renewed institutional buying. On Monday, the 11 spot-listed ETFs registered a net outflow of $151 million, according to data source SoSoValue.
Yet a trader opened a huge "call condor" option strategy on Monday, worth 20K BTC in notional ($1.76 billion), betting on a continued rally to levels above $100,000 by the year-end.
"Trader lifted a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25. Signal is clear: a structured bullish view – expecting BTC to reach the $100–$118k zone, not explode past it," crypto options exchange Deribit disclosed on X.
The long call condor is a four-legged options strategy that involves trading call options with the same expiration date but four different strike prices. It is constructed by buying one call at a lower strike price ($100K), selling two calls at the middle strike prices ($106K and $112K), and buying one call at the highest strike price ($118K).
The net position created is such that the trader stands to profit if BTC's price finishes the year between the middle strikes – $106K and $112K. So, the trader's bet reflects expectations of continued price rises into year-end.
That said, the strategy caps gains above $118K, which means the trader expects growth but within a measured limit rather than an explosive breakout. In other words, the block traders don't foresee BTC rising to record highs above $126,000 by year-end.
A block trade is a large-scale order executed privately between two parties outside of the open market to avoid impacting the asset's market price. Typically facilitated by specialized intermediaries or block-trading platforms, these trades enable institutional investors and high-net-worth traders to buy or sell large volumes at negotiated prices.
Monday's block trade highlights the growing involvement of sophisticated traders who are not merely speculating on bitcoin's price direction but also placing nuanced bets on the extent of its potential rally.
What to know:
A block trader placed a significant bet on bitcoin's price reaching above $100,000 by year-end, using a complex options strategy.
The strategy, however, bets on a measured rise rather than a record-breaking surge.