Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Steadies as Polymarket Traders Lean Toward December Rate Cut
Rising odds of a Fed pivot helped calm crypto markets, while QCP and Glassnode point to a reset in leverage, fading sell pressure, and early signs of a bottoming structure as traders hedge both downside and late-year upside.
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Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
Polymarket odds swung decisively toward a December rate cut over the weekend, helping crypto markets firm up after a volatile stretch that made BTC test $82K.
BTC began Tuesday in Hong Kong trading near $88,100, according to CoinDesk data, while ETH sits around $2,945 as traders reassessed the likelihood of easing and the market consolidated after the weekend swing.
QCP Capital says positioning reflects that shift in tone. The desk notes that traders are hedging both directions, with downside protection still in place but year-end call open interest outweighing puts at key strikes such as 85k, 120k, and 140k. QCP adds that funding has turned negative across major perpetual venues as long leverage is cleared out, which lowers the chance of another forced cascade even as volatility remains elevated.
Glassnode’s data points to the same structural reset. The firm sees oversold momentum and rising short-term holder supply, conditions it associates with the late stages of a correction.
It also notes that the Cumulative Volume Delta for perpetual futures, or perpetual CVD, remains negative, indicating that recent pressure has come from aggressive sellers in futures markets.
Even so, Glassnode characterizes the broader backdrop as a controlled drawdown driven by unwinds rather than disorderly liquidation, with signs that the market is beginning to stabilize within the current range.
The next catalyst arrives when U.S. markets reopen, and rate expectations are tested against incoming data.
If the shift toward a December cut continues, both QCP and Glassnode see room for BTC to stabilize within its current range as positioning normalizes and the effects of earlier unwinds fade.
What to know:
Bitcoin is trading near $88,000 in Hong Kong as expectations for a December rate cut stabilize the market.
Ethereum has rebounded to around $2,945, following Bitcoin's recovery amid steady risk sentiment in Asia.
Asia-Pacific markets, including Japan's Nikkei 225, opened higher on hopes for a December Fed rate cut.
Market Movement
BTC: BTC recovered from last week’s dip toward $82K and is now trading near $88,000, holding those gains as rate-cut expectations shift and selling pressure cools in early Asia trading.
ETH: ETH is trading around $2,945 after rebounding from last week’s pullback, tracking BTC’s recovery as broader risk sentiment steadies in early Asia hours
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,140 in early Asia hours, lifting as rate-cut expectations rise and traders position ahead of U.S. data that could confirm whether the December easing narrative holds.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.14% and the Topix rising 0.7% as Wall Street strength and growing hopes for a December Fed cut lifted sentiment.